Tag:Tournament
Posted on: March 9, 2009 2:01 pm
 

Bubble-icious

I saw an interesting Post regarding some of the bubble teams, specifically Davidson/Arizona/Kentucky - and I'm going to just throw Creighton in there to prove my point. Lets take a look.

Davidson Wildcats 26-7 (18-2)
RPI: 72
SOS: 165
vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-4
Key Wins: West Virginia
Key Losses: Citadel, Coll. of Charleston (2)
Last 10: 6-4

Arizona Wildcats 19-12 (9-9)
RPI: 51
SOS: 33
vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-8
Key Wins: Kansas, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga
Key Losses: Stanford (Washington State)
Last 10: 6-4

Kentucky Wildcats 19-12 (8-8)
RPI: 82
SOS: 63
vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-6
Key Wins: Tennessee (2), WVU
Key Losses: Georgia, VMI
Last 10: 3-7

Creighton Blue Jays 26-7 (14-4)
RPI: 41
SOS: 106
vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-2
Key Wins: Dayton, Illinois State
Key Losses: Drake, @Wich. State
Last 10: 9-1

 

Alright lets start talking here. If you were only given the option of putting one of these teams in who would it be? Creighton has the best RPI and best record vs. the top 50, While Kentucky's RPI is the worst and Davidson's SOS is abysmal. In the last 10, Creighton is 9-1, so they are coming in hot. I think we can eliminate Kentucky, because there is nothing very impressive about that. Arizona has key wins vs. 4 well-seeded tournament teams, and they have shown that they are going to be able to compete at a high level with their 5-8 top 50 record. You could make a very compelling argument for Creighton here, and since Davidson is 1-4 vs. the top 50, and 24-3 vs. RPI above 100, I think we can eliminate them. I don't see how you can justify the bad losses with just that one win vs. West Virginia. There is no reason that they should have lost the conference tournament, and I don't think they deserve to be in. This leaves Creighton and Arizona. The problem here for Creighton is that I think Arizona is already a good bit ahead of Creighton, and as long as they win a game in their conference tournament they should be the clear favorite out of this group.

Any way you slice it, Arizona looks the best out of these 4 teams, followed by Creighton, Davidson, and Kentucky, in that order. It's very possible too that none of these teams will appear in the tournament.

 

Posted on: February 24, 2009 3:49 pm
 

Spiraling

The conference tournaments are a few weeks away, leaving teams about 4-5 games each left to help or hurt their seedings for the conference tourney. I'll be closely following the Big East tournament, as that I am currently in the heart of Big East country. Oh, and I go to Syracuse. That too.

Speaking of the suprising and absolutely terrifying Big East Conference, three teams stand out to me as the teams who could play their way out of the tournament easier than the rest.

1. Georgetown Hoyas 14-12 (5-10)
          The Hoyas, in my opinion, are already out of the tournament, pending that they don't win the Big East tournament, and I don't see how that could happen. They've gone from 12-3, nationally ranked in the top 10 to an abysmal 5-10 conference record, including a season sweep by the Cincinnati Bearcats. Some nights they come to play, but most nights they don't play the full 40 minutes. The Hoyas are probably the biggest suprise in the Big East this year, and if they get into the tournament it would be nothing short of miraculous.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 15-11 (6-8)
           
The Irish have shown that they are capable of beating good teams, none more impressive than their absolute beatdown of Louisville not so long ago, but their terrible 7-game losing streak, in my opinion has them out of the tournament. The only way I see them getting an at-large bid would be by beating either UConn or Nova, AND making it to at least the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. That's probably a stretch.

3. Syracuse Orange 19-8 (7-7)
          Syracuse is a really interesting case. They played extremely well in their non-conference schedule, and the fact that Memphis and Kansas keep winning is really going to help them on Selection Sunday. In conference play, the Orange have looked as average as their record looks. The team has been mostly healthy, it's just a question of which Syracuse team will show up. Will the team that beat Memphis and Kansas come to play, or is this the team that showed up for the Cleveland State loss take the court. That being said, barring any major mistakes (like losing to Rutgers) I have Syracuse in the tournament. Seed will be interesting.

 

I'm going to be paying attention to the Big Ten tournament, because my good friend (Cyclops007) goes to school there. Unfortunately I will not be able to attend either of those conference tournaments this year.

 
 
 
 
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