I saw an interesting Post regarding some of the bubble teams, specifically Davidson/Arizona/Kentucky - and I'm going to just throw Creighton in there to prove my point. Lets take a look.
Davidson Wildcats 26-7 (18-2)
vs. Top 50 RPI: 1-4
Key Wins: West Virginia
Key Losses: Citadel, Coll. of Charleston (2)
Last 10: 6-4
Arizona Wildcats 19-12 (9-9)
vs. Top 50 RPI: 5-8
Key Wins: Kansas, Washington, UCLA, Gonzaga
Key Losses: Stanford (Washington State)
Last 10: 6-4
Kentucky Wildcats 19-12 (8-8)
vs. Top 50 RPI: 4-6
Key Wins: Tennessee (2), WVU
Key Losses: Georgia, VMI
Last 10: 3-7
Creighton Blue Jays 26-7 (14-4)
vs. Top 50 RPI: 3-2
Key Wins: Dayton, Illinois State
Key Losses: Drake, @Wich. State
Last 10: 9-1
Alright lets start talking here. If you were only given the option of putting one of these teams in who would it be? Creighton has the best RPI and best record vs. the top 50, While Kentucky's RPI is the worst and Davidson's SOS is abysmal. In the last 10, Creighton is 9-1, so they are coming in hot. I think we can eliminate Kentucky, because there is nothing very impressive about that. Arizona has key wins vs. 4 well-seeded tournament teams, and they have shown that they are going to be able to compete at a high level with their 5-8 top 50 record. You could make a very compelling argument for Creighton here, and since Davidson is 1-4 vs. the top 50, and 24-3 vs. RPI above 100, I think we can eliminate them. I don't see how you can justify the bad losses with just that one win vs. West Virginia. There is no reason that they should have lost the conference tournament, and I don't think they deserve to be in. This leaves Creighton and Arizona. The problem here for Creighton is that I think Arizona is already a good bit ahead of Creighton, and as long as they win a game in their conference tournament they should be the clear favorite out of this group.
Any way you slice it, Arizona looks the best out of these 4 teams, followed by Creighton, Davidson, and Kentucky, in that order. It's very possible too that none of these teams will appear in the tournament.